Market Condition Report for The High Desert Region 07/16/2007
Resale market only.  Some new homes, government, For Sale By Owners, out of area transactions excluded.  Report
intended to be generally descriptive of market condition and direction, not definitive.  Report is date of report minus 60 days.
Archives

  

History of Median Price
2005-2007

       Area Totals


Sales This Year to Date VS
Last Year to Date


Relative to the same period last year, the market in terms of resale transactions is off about 51%.  The last report was 49%.  This is the second month in a row of a 2-point decline.  The market continues to weaken relative to the same time period last year..

Percent Selling
Market Efficiencies by Month

Supply and Demand By Price


 

If one were asked about the condition of the Victor Valley market, the rigorous correct response would be “relative to what time period and what price class.”  Relative to price class the reader should review the
“Distribution of Supply/Demand by Price.”

The 60 day absorb rate (in Single Family Residence and Area Totals Charts)  measures market speed. 
It is the percentage of current supply (listings) that can be expected to close in 60 days given current demand (sales per month).  As the rate increases the market is moving in favor of sellers.  When the rate declines it is moving in favor of buyers.

 


 


These comments and opinions are designed to accompany the Market Condition Report above.

MARKET QUICK LOOK

Supply (LISTED) declined from last report as did demand (SALES PER MONTH).  The rate of failures increased dramatically.  Consequently, PERCENT SELLING (market efficiency) was reduced to 20%.  The 60 DAY ABSORB RATE (market speed) also declined to 9% while MONTHS SUPPLY increased to 24 months.  In general, all measures are continuing to move toward the buyer. 

To gain perspective, the 60 DAY ABSORB RATE in Orange County is 22% while the average rate for Victor Valley is 9%.  This would suggest that listings in Orange County are being converted to closings at a rate 2.4% faster than Victor Valley (22/9). 

LIST PRICE ALL weakened to $337K.  ASK AT OFFER declined $1000, as did CLOSE PRICE, which reduced to $303 as was predicted.  The current list price of properties in escrow is $291K signaling the continuation of future declines ahead. 

Inventories of sale pending (short term demand) rose, suggesting that seller reductions have resulted in an increase in pending sales. 

Strongest Sub-Market:  Wrightwood at 35% selling, 14% ABSORB RATE, 14 MONTHS SUPPLY, closing in 76 days at $315K. 

Weakest Sub-Market:  Oak Hills at 14% selling, 4% ABSORB RATE, 47 MONTHS SUPPLY, closing in 112 days at $513K.  This sub-market is exceptionally slow and lethargic.  The level of demand at the current price schedule offered by sellers is near non-existent.

TIP:

Sellers looking to sell will be looking at more substantial price reductions in the months ahead if they want to sell.  A substantial price reduction today may look like a bargain 8-12 months from now.

Buyers need to temper the desire of getting a better price later with the offsetting cost of higher future interest and more stringent lender requirements that could result in less house than they could get today.
 

 

Data Supplied by Chicago Title

Market Condition Report

HighDesertRealEstate.org  -  AppleValleyHomesForSale.com -  HesperiaHomesForSale.com  -  VictorvilleHomesForSale.com