Market Condition Report for The High Desert Region 5/13/2007
Resale market only. Some new homes, government, For Sale By Owners, out of area transactions excluded. Report
intended to be generally descriptive of market condition and direction, not definitive. Report is date of report minus 60 days.
Archives

History of Median Price 2005-2007	Area Totals	Sales This Year to Date VS Last Year to Date
		Relative to the same period last year, the market in terms of resale transactions is off about 47%. The market has slowed by 1 percentage from the last report (April –46%).
		Percent Selling Market Efficiencies by Month

Supply and Demand By Price
		If one were asked about the condition of the Victor Valley market, the rigorous correct response would be “relative to what time period and what price class.” Relative to price class the reader should review the “Distribution of Supply/Demand by Price.” As a generalization, “odds” is a calculation “against” an event occurring. Thus, in 60 days, if one property sells and nine fail, the market has resolved ten sales situations. From an “odds” perspective, the “odds” against the seller and his listing agent are 9 to 1. The table presents a ratio, not the odds. However, the two calculations can be reasonably interchanged. Currently, the overall “odds” against the seller and his listing agent are 9 to 1. Last month the “odds” were 8 to 1.

These comments and opinions are designed to accompany the Market Condition Report above.

MARKET QUICK LOOK

Supply (LISTED) increased from the last report; however, demand (SALES PER MONTH) slipped by 6 units to 260 from 266. The rate of failures also increased marginally. Consequently, PERCENT SELLING (market efficiency) was reduced to 25%. The 60 DAY ABSORB RATE (market speed) also declined from 12% to 11% while DAYS SUPPLY increased significantly. In general, the market, which was currently moving sideways in a slow and sluggish manner, is now moving toward the buyer in the same manner.

LIST PRICE ALL weakened to $349K while ASK AT OFFER declined $1,000 and CLOSE PRICE was reduced to $302. Inventories of sale pending (short term demand) also declined from last report. This decline suggests that sale pendings are being reduced at a rate faster than new pendings.

In terms of supply (LISTED) the market is at or near peak. It should be assumed that the usual spring surge in terms of demand has run its course at or near the current level. This is in line with other survey areas where this surge has proven weak and/or non-existent.

The reader should expect a continuation of price weakness; however, the rate of decline has slowed in the short run.

Strongest Sub-Market: Lucerne Valley at 37% selling, 15% ABSORB RATE, with DAYS SUPPLY if 412 closing in 82 days at $200,000.00.

Weakest Sub-Market: Oak Hills at 15% selling, 5% ABSORB RATE, with DAYS SUPPLY of 1,167, closing in 98 days at $552,000.00. This sub-market is exceptionally slow and lethargic.

TIP:

Sellers and many agents, as a class, believe it is the “job” of the listing agent to “sell” the listed property. This incorrect and simplistic notion leads to confusion, extended DOMs, and unnecessary expiration, cancellation and withdrawl. It is the “job” of the listing agent to manage the sale of the property. This process is multi-dimensional in scope.
Managing a property includes determination of market price, and management of the price/position in a shifting market. It also includes acting as a skilled intermediary during negotiations and escrow closing.
Advertising is not a necessary element for the sale of any one property. Advertising generally supports the agent’s business goal of meeting new prospects rather than the sale of a discrete property. Often times, advertising retards the sales process by masquerading as a substitute for correct pricing.

Data Supplied by Chicago Title

Market Condition Report

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