Quick Outlook

In terms of current market position, the market should be judged as favoring the buyer. 

In terms of movement, the market should be judged as moving toward the seller.  Key measures are no longer declining and have begun to increase.  The level of sale pending is showing good increases.  Distribution of Supply/Demand Table continues to tighten.  Price, however, moved downward marginally in the month of March.  As in any market, prices may fall then rally and recover.  Current indicators support the notion of a price rally and stabilization in the range $200,000 and $215,000 in the short run.  Median price declines below $200,000 appear to be possible and probable in the short run.  This is a change in opinion from the February report.  Current analysis indicates price movement to a limit of $209,000 with a high probability of movement through the $200,000 benchmark within 90 days. 

The reader should note that Percent Selling (Market Efficiency) has stabilized and has begun to increase (see arrow).  This is a signal the market has bottomed in terms of demand and is now on the rebound.  Percent Selling should begin to increase slowly as a result of the more competitive price schedule offered by sellers and the favorable market cycle (Spring).  These are the first tentative steps to market recovery from the seller perspective. 

The current increase in activity is an inevitable buyer response to the relatively lower price schedule offered by sellers over previous time periods.  Clearly demonstrated and often forgotten is that a mature market is in full operation and that ultimately each market participant must meet the demands of that market.  Those who do not wish to meet these demands will find no satisfaction and will be faced with a choice:  Either accept market dictates or exit and wait until the market is more favorable to their interests.